Turkey – Armenia: Normalization Process still Continues?
Armenian question which is one of the main issues of Turkish Foreign Policy and threatens the prestige of Turkey in international relations, become a complicated issue for academic studies, especially for political scientists and historians.
If the issue is examined chronologically, after the signing of the protocols which was signed in Zurich at October 2009, documents are brought to the both parliaments and both sides wait for confirmation process. After the protocols confirmed in both parliaments, protocols will become active.
Turkish Parliament started the process of confirmation and both Armenian President Sarkisyan and Armenian Foreign Minister Nalbantyan announced that Armenian Parliament will confirm the protocols after the Turkish parliament's confirmation. Armenia is disturbed because Turkey did not announce a certain date for confirmation of the protocol also Turkey announced that Turkish Parliament will not accept the protocol until Armenia withdraws from the invaded Azerbaijan lands. Sarkisyan first complained about this issue in December and made an intimidate speech about the issue. Sarkisyan declared an constitutional amendment plan which includes withdrawal from international treaties. He announced that Armenia may reject the protocol in the parliament if Turkey delays the confirmation of the protocol.
Thus Armenian Parliament took the Amendment on International Treaties Law into their agenda in the end of the February. This proposal which seems to be a intimidation towards Turkey may be understood as a move for internal policy. Armenian government was so much criticized by opposition and Diaspora while the protocol signing process and delay of Turkish Parliament empowered those criticisms through Sarkisyan Government. At this point, Sarkisyan tried to prevent those criticisms and he wanted to draw a powerful side image by this amendment.
Intimidate declarations of Armenian politicians and cautious movements of the Armenian Parliament block the way of normalization process between Turkey and Armenia.
In the march, Armenian Genocide issue discussed in USA Representatives Parliament, Foreign Policy Committee. This discussion took the first place in Turkey's agenda. Ankara especially Turkish Ministry of Foreign Affairs criticized Representatives Parliament harshly because of decision of taking this discussion into the agenda.
This decision of discussing Armenian Genocide Law was not a surprising event. Thoughts which defend that US trial of using this issue for putting a pressure on Turkey for confirmation of the protocol by Turkish Parliament empowered.
While US was using the genocide issue to force Turkey for confirming the protocols, an important part of the Armenian lobby used this proposal to kill the protocols with the blaming the Armenia with giving compensations to Turkey. Armenian lobby tried to undermine the protocols with this proposal and they wanted the finish the process of confirmation of the protocols in the both sides.
At last, Armenian Genocide Law Proposal accepted in the USA Representatives Parliament in Washington on 4 th of March.
Progress was jammed at the discussion of proposal's possibility of proposal to taken into the agenda of American Congress. It was considerable that the proposal which was accepted in the US Representatives Parliament and which was not binding, hampered both Turkish - Armenian and Turkish - American relations.
President Obama's speech which will be held on the traditional Genocide Commemoration day of Armenians, 24 th of April, waited with a high level of curiosity.
While the Turkish - Armenian relations and Genocide Proposal were focused on the day 24 th of March, another decision was announced by Sweden. Sweden became the 20 th country which was recognized the Armenian Genocide with the decision taken on the 11 th of March 2010.
This decision is not binding just like the other decisions taken by other countries. It does not bring a legal obligation to both countries. So, decision does not mean any more than reflecting the parliamentarians' opinion. Besides this, those decisions empowers the Armenians idea of 1915 Armenian Genocide. It is clear that this decision will not play a positive role about the Turkish - Armenian relations just like the other decisions which was taken by other countries. It is possible to say that those decisions are preventing the negotiation progress between Turkey and Armenia with historical conflicts and discussions.
Thus aggressive declarations of Armenian politicians went on in the March. Sarkisyan made a speech in De Zor, Syria in which he repeated the Armenian Genocide claims and focusing on Turkey - Armenia relations. Sarkisyan emphasized that Armenia does not abandon its desire to recognition of Armenian Genocide by other countries because of the negotiations between Turkey and Armenia.
Harsh speech of Sarkisyan seems to be made for Armenian internal policy. It is clear that this approach does not make any sense for constructing a permanent friendship between Turkey and Armenia or finding new ways to normalizing the Turkey - Armenia relations which seems to be desired by Armenian side too much
After all these, Armenian Genocide Law proposal taken into the agenda of England Parliament after US and Sweden on 30 th of March. The House of the Lords started the discuss whether the 1915 incidents are genocide or not? In the session, demand of accepting the 24 th of April as a commemoration of genocide day rejected.
In the march, Turkey stepped for resolving the problem of confirming the protocols. Turkish Ministry of Foreign Affairs undersecretary Feridun Sinirlioglu went to Erivan as the special representative of Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan. He delivered Erdogan's letter to Sarkisyan. The message of the letter was: The cost of reaching an agreement costs less than dissolution between Armenia and Turkey.
By this step, Turkey became the side which fastens the negotiation and diplomacy for achieving success in the normalization process. Erdogan had sent another letter to the Baku. In the letter he gave messages about the process and Karabag which was expected to relieve Baku. In the letter, Turkey's persistence about not opening borders to Armenia until the resolution of Karabag problem was repeated.
On 12 th of April, Erdogan met with Sarkisyan at the Nuclear Security Summit in US. Erdogan's letter to Sarkisyan discussed in detail in the meeting. After the meeting Sarkisyan defended that Turkey negotiates with Armenia and Armenians with preconditions.
Sarkisyan continued to make aggressive speeches during his US visit too. While his visit to Wilson's Grave, He said that Armenia does not wish to discuss genocide and He do not believe that Turkey may have a positive role in the Karabag process.
Sarkisyan who puts Armenia's three conditions forward in his speech, told that "Turkey cannot negotiate with Armenia with preconditions. They will not discuss 1915 Genocide issue and he defended that Turkey cannot play a positive role in the Karabag process, Turkey cannot be the mediator in the Karabag issue. With these conditions raised by Sarkisyan, the process between Turkey and Armenia went into another deadlock.
There was no success achieved in the meeting held in 12 th of April because both sides did not change their attitude but sides were decided to continue to negotiate.
But Armenia President met with officials of the Tashnak Party in US. Tashnak party left the coalition government because of the protocols with Turkey and this event show that Sarkisyan started to look the issue from an internal policy perspective.
On the other hand, Turkey's efforts to resolve Karabag problem was remarkable. Turkey contacted with US and AGIT Minsk group to resolve the problem.
Turkey held the initiative in its hand with linking the protocols issue to the Karabag issue while Armenia had an inflexible policy on the issue with pushing for a confirmation of protocols without any preconditions.
On 22 nd of April, Armenia President Sarkisyan announced that they had stopped the confirmation process of the protocols but they are loyal to their signing under the protocols. Armenian government repeated its attitude once again with this announcement. They had announced this decision in the past too.
Glorious announcement of Armenian government is a result of government's relations with balance of Armenian internal policy and Diaspora. If protocols were confirmed in the short term and if borders were opened, it would be a great success for Sarkisyan. Armenia had troubled with Turkey's precondition of Karabağ issue. Armenia tried to get out of this situation with suspending the protocols.
Another aim of Armenia's attitude was to influence Obama's declaration which will be held in 24 th of April.
Armenia's huge expectations from Turkey is one of the important reasons lying behind this decision. Armenians believed that some achievements would reached before April the 24 th. But Turkey did not confirmed the protocols and anxiety was risen while 24 th of April approached. Armenia felt itself in a need of act and this decision taken.
When April the 24 the came, Obama did not say the word "genocide" in his speech, he used the Armenian idiom of "Metz Yegern" just like in his speech held in previous year.
He indirectly recognized the 1915 incidents as Armenian Genocide with these words. In contrast to this attitude he was criticized by Diaspora for not owing his promise which was given while Obama was president candidate.
American Presidents' April the 24 th messages are documents of internal policy. In this sense, those messages do not have a high level of importance for Turkey but because of a prejudiced approach for a historical event, they cannot be acceptable either. When this event is analyzed from a foreign policy perspective, this message did not make a huge problem when compared to other problems between Turkey and US.
The most remarkable point of Sarkisyan's 24 th of April speech was defining the 1915 incidents as a Ottoman State policy which aims to holocaust Armenians but he did not relate it with Republic of Turkey in contradiction to what was used to.
In the May 2010, Turkey's sensibility on Karabag issue was still affecting Turkish Foreign Policy. Turkish Foreign Affairs Minister Ahmet Davutoglu said that Turkey desires to open its borders with Armenia but it is not enough to open Turkey-Armenia border, Armenia-Azerbaijan border must be opened.
In this period in which Turkey and Russia getting closer to each other, the most important issue to be resolved is Karabag problem in South Caucasia. Issue was also in the agenda at the Medvedev's visit to Turkey. While the Turkey-Russia negotiations not only trade agreements but also strategic agreements were signed. Incidents and events in Karabag and South Caucasia were discussed in the proceedings of Medvedev's visit. While efforts of Turkey and Azerbaijan to change the status quo in the region, Baku and Ankara had shown a confidence to Russia for resolving the problem.
In the middle of the May, Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan visited Azerbaijan and he repeated the precondition of ending up the Armenian invasion of Karabag lands for confirming the protocols. He made a speech with Azerbaijan President Aliev and he had spoken about the energy and pipeline plans in the region also.
Parliamentary elections held in the invaded Karabag region. Karabag Armenian Government which tried to show that "Karabag has liberty", could not reach its aim. Azerbaijan, Turkey and EU declared that elections did not have a legal base and elected parliamentarians will not recognized as Karabag representatives.
After all, dialogue which was started with Turkish President Gul's visit to Armenia as a guest of Sarkisyan for watching the national football match between Armenia and Turkey, still continue in spite of all problems and Armenia.
Armenia got into this relationship for not being isolated from the natural gas, railway and oil projects in the region. Protocols which are masterpieces of diplomacy, could not be confirmed because of Armenia's lacking steps.
It is understood that both sides were differently interpreted the process. Azerbaijan was against to these protocols since from the beginning. It would be true to say that both 2 protocols signed by Turkey and Armenia are in a deadlock now. This deadlock can only get finished by Armenia. Armenia should change its attitude towards the Karabag issue by negotiating and Armenia should abandon its arguments about the 1915 incidents.
Both Armenia and Armenia supporter International Community should abandon their anti-Turkey policy to accelerate the negotiations between Turkey and Armenia. In this period in which Turkish Foreign Policy is having an important reformation, Turkey's efforts for resolving the problems with Armenia can only be meaningful if Armenia responses positively. In this sense, if both Turkey and Armenia can show the persistence through the resolution just like they did in the Zurich protocols, an absolute resolution can be reached.
