Energy is a determining factor in a country's ability to achieve its development targets and meet the needs of its transport, industry, defense sectors and ensure the general well-being of its society. But importantly, it is a renewable resource and has viable alternatives. Unlike water, which is inarguably a vital resource but is also a depletable and non-renewable one.

A serious problem across the globe but especially alarming for the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is the threat posed by the scarcity of available, clean drinkable water. Given global trends, the threat of water scarcity and the importance of effective water usage are growing day by day. Although 67% of the earth's surface is covered by water, the inherent dangers caused by pollution, including health risks in urban centers, industrial and chemical waste, and poor environmental practice resulting in damage to the ecosystem is endangering this irreplaceable resource.

Thirty three percent of the global population lives in countries where existing water supplies are inadequate to meet their needs. Nearly one billion people lack access to clean water and 2.5 billion lack water for proper sanitation. With population growth over the next 25 years, these figures are expected to rise dramatically. The underlying problem has less to do with diminishing water resources than toxic levels of chemical waste seeping into lakes, rivers and groundwater, threatening the supply of safe drinking water.

Coupled with the effect of global pollution, the gap between available drinking water and the rising demand spurred by population growth and mobility is widening. From a broader perspective, the stakes are high when it comes to water resources, and the issue is not only a concern for immediate neighboring countries, but has increasingly become the political target of global powers. As such, the ‘water' factor, much like coveted energy resources, has claimed an important place among the political and strategic interests of the MENA region.

Demand can be classified into two water use types, household (domestic) and industrial, commercial use for the manufacture and production of commodities. The first is what is known as ‘biological need' and represents a person's daily physical need for water and is a minimum of 25 liters. But combined with other areas of water utility required to sustain a decent quality of life, such as food preparation, bathing and laundry, the demand jumps to 200 liters per person per day. In industrialized countries, usage is as high as 300-400 liters per person per day. The second type of water-use pertains to mainly to the industrial and agriculture sectors. The main cause of depleting water resources in the Middle East is agriculture, demanding more water use than any other sector of the economy.

In general, a country with less than 1,700 cubic meters of water per person annually is regarded as experiencing water stress, while less than 1,000 cubic meters is regarded as water shortage. Since 1995, 41% of the world's population, or 2.3 billion people, live in areas where water supply is less than 1,700 cubic meters per capita, and of this, 1.7 billion people live in high-risk areas with water shortages. Based on current consumption patterns, 48% of the world's population or 3.5 billion people will be forced to live in regions facing water stress by 2025, while 2.4 billion of them residing in high-risk areas. Only high-income countries will have access to technologies, such as desalination and water recycling to boost their capacity to satisfy their water needs.

The MENA region is the world's most arid and disadvantaged region in terms of water resources. Lack of available water has had negative impacts on the economic and social progress of the region's countries. The MENA region is home to some 6% of the world's population but holds less than 1% of replenishable global water supply. Despite this bleak picture, most regional states continue to employ poor water management practices with the already scare supply.

Water availability in the region is at about 1,500 m3 per person per annum, compared to the global average of 7,000 m3. The average drops as low as 200 m3 per person per annum in Jordon, Yemen and Palestine. Regional population growth is 2% annually, approximately 7 million persons per year, and follows Africa in rate of population increase. Although the birthrate fell from 7 per woman in 1960 to 3.6 in 2001, and is expected to drop further still, the regional population is expected to double in the next 50 years. ( ) Irrigated agriculture water usage drains 90% of usable water supply in the region. The need to produce sufficient amounts of crops to feed growing populations has meant that irrigated agricultural land area in the region doubled between 1965-1997. Similarly, demand for water use for industrial purposes has grown owing to the rise in population numbers. Water management in the region is largely inadequate and ineffective. Poor pricing techniques for water use for irrigation, domestic and industrial water supply, the absence of proper wastewater recycling and treatment systems, and groundwater withdrawals surpassing the rate of replenishment, have combined meant that existing water supplies are increasingly at risk of running dry.

Although regional water resources are depletable, increasing demand for water in all sectors, most notably in agriculture and industry, as well as domestic use, will mean that the current average supply of 1,500 m3 per person per year will drop to 500 m3 in 2025.

In most regional countries, with the notable exception of the Arabian Peninsula, agriculture has a significant share of overall national production. To boost their agricultural sectors, the oil-exporting countries of the Arabian Peninsula have relied on oil revenue to establish systems that were previously too expensive, such as desalination, wastewater decontamination, and groundwater/aquifer withdrawal. Although industrial water usage puts less pressure on water supply than agriculture, nonetheless, it still has had an effect on rising demand.

Essentially, population growth, industrial development, and reliance on agriculture mean that the demand for water is rising drastically in the region. Maybe not immediately, but meeting this demand will be a growing burden on the MENA region in the future. Growing demand and inadequate supplies will cause severe tensions and escalation of conflict in the region in the coming term, in a sure sign that water is taking over from oil as the likeliest cause of conflict in the Middle East.

The Syria-Israeli war was not over the Golan Heights alone, but for hegemony over water resources and arable land for agriculture in the area. The ongoing Israel-Palestine-Lebanon disagreement and conflict is the result of Israel's policies aimed at consolidating control over the critical water resources of the Hasbani and Litani Rivers and Lake Tibériade, essential for the agricultural and industrial development of the region.

Replenishable water resources with continual flow in the Middle East are the Tigris-Euphrates (Dicle-Firat), Assi, Litani rivers; and the Nile and Draa rivers in North Africa. Among these, the Nile, Firat-Dicle and Draa are three large water basins. The 6,825 km long Nile River is the longest river in the Middle East. Fed by Uganda, Ethiopia and Sudan, and traversing across 10 countries in the region, the drainage basin of the Nile covers 3,254,555 square kilometres and irrigates land with a population density of 44 persons/ km2. (Graphic 1)( )( )

The Draa River forms much of the Moroccan-Algerian frontier and flows into the Atlantic Ocean, irrigating land area of 114,562 km2 and population density of 11 person/km2 (Graphic 2). The Firat River (Euphrates) is the western of the two great rivers that define Mesopotamia which flows from Anatolia. It is 2,930 km long, and after Turkey, it flows first across Syria and then through Iraq. The Tigris is approximately 1,840 km long. After its course in Turkey, it flows to Iraqi territory, and unites with the Firat before emptying into the Persian Gulf. Total land irrigated by the two rivers is 765,831 km2 with population density of 58 persons/ km2 (Graphic 3).

It is not known how the co-riparian states, facing difficulties meeting demand for water even at current levels, will reach a settlement on access and usage of these crucial resources in the future, even as demand rises. In international law, there is no binding law, regulation, principle or accepted norm regarding cross-border resources or international waters. Attempts to reconcile the issue have relied on past international agreements, relevant precedent, and the fundamental principles of international law. Reports by the United Nations International Law Commission (UN-ILC) released in 1978, 1989, 1991 and 1994 are the most important comprehensive work done to date. ( )

Graphic 1: Nile River Basin Graphic 2: Draa River Basin

Graphic 3: Tigris-Euphrates Basin

Turkey and regional water issues

Geographically, Turkey's cross-border waterways cover a wide expanse of land and population. Turkey is in a particularly strategic position because it possesses vast reserves of water resources in the Middle East. Water resources that irrigate Syria and Iraq are sourced in Turkey's river basins, granting significant control over these resources to Turkey.

Although Turkey has access to 1,652 m3 per person per year of replenishable water supplies, this is still well below the global average of 7,000 m3 per person per year. Considering the combined factors of population growth, a young population (50% between the 0-35 age bracket), the demands of industrial and agricultural development, even an effective, efficient and economical water management policy is not enough to prevent water scarcity. This reality makes Turkey far from being a water-wealthy country. Even with its existing reserves, Turkey cannot solve the Middle East's water problems. Attempts to downplay this reality, and approach Turkey's Seyhan, Ceyhan, Manavgat and Goksu rivers that flow into the Mediterranean, the Tigris and Euphrates aside, as ‘excess' or dispensable resources that can be used for ‘water for peace' projects does nothing more than severely jeopardize the well-being and water security of Turkey's future generations and their chances to ensure sustainable living standards.

Turkey has adhered to its commitments contained in international agreements, respected the principles of neighborly relations in water conservation for supplies flowing from its own territory, and has been in alignment with the recommendations of the UN-ILC reports. It must also acutely consider the role that water issues in the Middle East will play when making assessments for the future.

Despite Turkey's careful observation of its commitments contained in international regulations and agreements to which it is signatory, the European Union has failed to approach the issue from this perspective. It is known that the EU released three documents on October 6, 2004. The first two of these documents make reference to Turkey's cross-border waters, and the related usage of dams, irrigation and other infrastructure. The reports are as follows:

• Document 1: Commission of the European Communities, Commission Staff Working Document; Issues Arising From Turkey's Membership Perspective ( )

"A key issue in the region is access to water for development and irrigation. Water in the Middle East will increasingly become a strategic issue in the years to come, and with Turkey's accession one could expect international management of water resources and infrastructures (dams and irrigation schemes in the Euphrates and Tigris river basins, cross-border water cooperation between Israel and its neighboring countries) to become a major issue for the EU.

As a result of Turkey's accession, the presence of sizeable Kurdish minorities in Turkey and in other countries of the region, and the existence of Kurdish diaspora in the present EU, could have implications for the EU's relations with these countries."

In an article that seemingly sets out to address the ‘international management of water resources' in the aftermath of Turkey's EU accession, it is unclear why cross-border Tigris-Euphrates waters is referred to in relation to Israel, a state that is clearly not an EU member.

• Document 2: Commission of the European Communities Communication from the Commission to the Council and the European Parliament; Recommendation of The European Commission on Turkey's Progress Towards Accession ( )

"Turkey's accession would help to secure better energy supply routes for the EU. It would probably necessitate a development of EU policies for the management of water resources and the related infrastructure. Because of their sometimes considerable trans-boundary effects, good implementation by Turkey of other EU policies in the fields of environment, transport, energy and consumer protection would also have considerable positive effects for EU citizens elsewhere."

It is unclear where and what is implied by "EU citizens elsewhere". In a document that is reported to address issues relevant to the geography of the EU and Turkey, the placement of reference to EU citizens elsewhere is puzzling and raises concern.

The above statements from the EU reports highlight the importance for the EU of Turkey's trans-national waters and the strong likelihood that this issue will become a strategic determinant in the Middle East. Furthermore, it is clear that the EU reports foresee that water management cooperation on dam and infrastructure projects in the Tigris-Euphrates river basin will take place with Israel, who has previously not been a party to such negotiations, as well as Turkey's neighboring countries of Syria and Iraq, with which Turkey has no present problems in relations. These reports further emphasize the possible challenges that the EU identifies that it will face should Turkey's accession materialize, and which will necessitate international management to oversee Turkey's water resources and infrastructure. In the post-U.S. invasion Iraq, a Ministry of Water Resources was established-one which did not exist beforehand. These preparations offer warning signs that Iraq, under pressure by the U.S. which already rejects the ‘basin principle' commonly accepted in international water agreements, will be the scene of water-centric strife, similar to ones afore experienced with Syria.

In a region where water resources are scare, it looks like there will be more pressure to explain the distinction between what constitutes ‘equitable' and what constitutes ‘equal' sharing of the strategic lifelines of the Tigris -Euphrates river. Resolving this issue promises to be an even tougher task in the future, with the likelihood that the U.S. and Israel will emerge as new actors with a stake in the issue, in addition to Syria and Iraq.( )

For the reasons discussed here, it seems that the 21st century will witness regional tension and competition less over oil and natural gas, thanks to alternative energy sources, and more over the life-sustaining and non-renewable source of water. Scarcer resources could escalate violence and political turmoil even beyond the region's boundaries, and it could happen sooner, rather than later.

1 Prof. Dr. Özhan Uluatam, Ortadoğu'nun Su Sorunu "Damlaya Damlaya" [Drop by Drop, the Water Challenge in the Middle East] TİB Kültür Publication, April 1998.
2 Farzaneh Roudi-Fahimi, Liz Creel, Roger-Mark De Souza, "Finding the Balance: Population and Water Scarcity in the Middle East and North Africa", PRB-Population Reference Bureau, June 2002, www.prb.org.
3 Uluatam, Drop by Drop
4 WRI-EarthTrends, The Enviromental Information Portal. Available at http:// earthtrends.wri.org.
5 Prof. Dr. Mehmet Tomanbay, "Dünya Su Bütçesi ve Ortadoğu Gerçeği" [The World's Water Budget and the Reality of the Middle East] Gazi Kitapevi, 1998.
6 Commission of the European Communities, Commission Staff Working Document; Issues Arising From Turkey's Membership Perspective, Brussels 6.10.2004, SEC (2004) 1202, COM (2004), 656 final, Section 1.3 "Trans-national issues", pg.9, paragraph: 6.
7 Commission of the European Communities Communication from the Commission to the Counciil and the European Parliament; Recommendation of The European Commission on Turkey's Progress Towards Accession; Brussels 6.10.2004, COM (2004), 656 final, Section 3 "Assessing The Issues Arising From Turkey's Membership Perspective" pg: 6, paragraph 5.
8 Uluatam, Drop by Drop.