I simply do not believe that it is reasonable to apply the same rules or expectations from countries as if they were identical....No two countries are ever identical.
Leadership plays an essential role. The quality and composition of the leader dictates very much the identity and destiny of the country.
A Mugabe and Mandela were both leaders in similar settings but with very different outcomes for their constituents. The same can be said about an Ataturk and an Arafat.
For Azerbaijan, the birth that took place in Nahcivan on the 10th May 1923 was indeed a fortunate one. Haydar Ali Riza Oghlu Aliyev's remarkable journey from the shores of the Caspian to Moscow and then back to Baku is parallel to the journey of the country in its search to find its true destiny. The search is still continuing today under the leadership of his son President Ilham Aliyev.
Freedom or justice?
Western doctrine will always dictate and demand greater freedom whatever the circumstances: more transparency, clearer rule of law and most of all freedom. This is a mantra that is repeated regardless of location, composition or history. It is important to note that in the West, greatest importance is given to freedom.
In the East, the greatest degree of importance is given to justice. In developing countries, a just process without transparency is preferable to a free process with transparency that is perceived as unjust.
Could this be cultural bias? Without a doubt it is. But it opens up options for economic reform, diversification and sustainability.
The biggest challenge and one that I feel is sustainable is to aim to have a collective society based on values; a society that gives credence to the values set forth by many of our forefathers.
A strength in the belief that if you study hard and work hard, that you will live a respectable life; where teachers, professors, analysts and builders of society are valued more than singers, models, dancers or football players.
Utopia?
Well, not in the case of Singapore where a young man by the name of Lee Kwan Yu dreamed in 1949 of seeing the sleepy village reach the economic heights of Sri Lanka as he sailed back home after finishing a degree at Cambridge University.
There is no reason why an Ilham Aliyev cannot be cited in the same category or classification in years to come. Already the President has achieved one of the most challenging tasks of keeping religion and state separate. Not a small task in a predominantly Muslim country. One needs to look at Pakistan or Turkey to see how difficult a task this can be. In this context it is a huge comfort to realise that the apple has not fallen far from the tree and that the genes of the great Haydar Aliyev continue in its strong leadership.
Societies prosper either through innovation or imitation. You either create value added, via new products or services as in the case of Japan, US and European countries, or imitate them in a less expensive way, as in the case of China.
The choice in which way to proceed will determine the structure of the economy in years to come. Dependence on oil is a huge luxury and God given resource. Referred to by Kleveman as ‘The Devil's Tears' as it helps create both prosperity and destitution. But far more importantly many of us are old enough to remember when oil was $8 a barrel. It happens.

What are the options?
Many look at the Russian model with envy for its strength and force, but one can easily argue that the mighty Russian bear suffers from the same Achilles' heel of any oil and gas producing country. The same overwhelming dependence on oil prices has created the size and strength of the former fragmented state suffering from the end of the Soviet Union. In purely economic terms it is simply too early to say if it has a model that will be successful. Only time will tell whether Russia can transform its economy from a one trick pony to a multi piston engine. Thus on this front there seems very little to learn.
The Kazakh model is also worthy of note as pumping up an infant financial sector also carries great risks to the greater economy as a whole. A healthy financial sector which serves the market is essential for continued prosperity. Without it the wind is taken away from the sales and consistency in prosperity is jeopardized as we are seeing currently in the US financial markets.
The Turkish model seems irrelevant in this context and out of place. However one aspect is probably worth exploring - and that is tourism. Azerbaijan is woefully lacking in this area despite its natural beauty and the hospitality of its people. Easier access, greater numbers and variations of accommodation and an organised tourism effort would undoubtedly bring about a booming industry and thus an inflow of dollars and Euros.
I would also suggest far closer economic ties with Turkey where access to American and European companies, goods and services are at your fingertips and easily accessible. In light of the cultural closeness and similar language it would appear to be an ideal partner though for some reason this cooperation seems to be underutilised.
The sensitive topic of the conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh
On a purely economic sense, continued conflicts are expensive and have no economic justification. I fully understand the importance of sovereignty and territorial integrity. However I am left with an overwhelming desire to see a satisfactory end to something that has caused such bloodshed, tears and displacement not to mention money.
In conclusion, without a doubt the future of Azerbaijan will be decided by the people of Azerbaijan. The fates of countries are simply a projection of the collective will of its people. And as in any country the will of many is greatly influenced by the thoughts of the leadership. I suspect we will see a unique combination of many of the components of its history and heritage.

*Emre Timurkan, Head of Investor Sales Turkey, Central Asia & Caucasus, Citigroup, speaking on the Conference ‘Azerbaijan's road to prosperity: economic, political and foreign policy challenges' organised by the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), LINKS and SAM in London, 20th June 2008.