Whilst travelling through scenic greenery on the winding narrow road from the port city of Magosa on the Turkish side of Cyprus to the Karpaz Peninsula situated at the Northern end of the island, a busy construction site can be seen to the left along the coastline. Upon the shimmering blue waters of the East Mediterranean, this ordinary looking structure extending towards Israel is the building site of a new port. Although, it is said that the port is to meet the extra influx of tourists that have been coming to Northern Cyprus over the last 4 years and to accommodate large yachts, there are those that believe the port may be used for very different reasons. The problem in Cyprus between the two small communities has been, in the last half century, turned into a Gordian knot as a result of a deep seated multi-lateral geopolitical struggle.
e geographic position of the island on the world map and developments around it such as those listed below, all serves to put Cyprus at the centre of attention once again because of the world's geopolitical balances:
• To the East; Lebanon, Syria and Israel
• To the west; North Africa
• Main route for Oil and Gas from Central Asia and the Caspian Sea to other parts of the World
• Gateway to the Red Sea
• The re-activation of Russian bases at Syrian ports that are directed towards Cyprus
Without doubt, the strategic significance of Cyprus is not confined to the Eastern Mediterranean. The shortest way to effectiveness in the Middle East is the use of Cyprus for strategic purposes. The recent settlement of US soldiers, who were then deployed to the Gulf region, on to British bases in Cyprus, has been perceived as a "preparation for Iran". Despite the United Kingdoms' closure of its military bases all around the world, their keeping of the bases in Cyprus and not registering them as land that is a part of the European Union (EU), points to the strategic depth and importance of the island.
From the Balkans to North Africa, Caucasia to the Middle East, the island of Cyprus provides natural opportunities for military deployment, aerial transportation, intelligence and counter-intelligence in a very broad region .
The developments of the last 4 years in Cyprus should be evaluated from this perspective. A referendum, held on both sides of the island for the last plan aimed at the resolution of the division of the island; the Annan Plan, named after the former UN Secretary-General, which was accepted by the Turkish Cypriots but rejected by the Greek Cypriots and for the first time in 15 years, Russia's use of its veto rights on the process in the UN Security Council are all historic events.
The Cards Are Being Reshuffled
Although, all of this may now seem to be in the past, the picture following recent elections that were held in the South of Cyprus, signals the beginning of a new period for Cyprus. Actually, the election results on its own shows the kind of chess board Cyprus is on. The EU and Greece were afraid that the continuation of former Greek Cypriot leader Papadopoulos's irreconcilable attitudes would solidify the division within the island and replaced him with former pro-Soviet AKEL's leader Christofias. The EU's fear of the solidification of the partition within Cyprus was intensified with the independence of Kosovo and the Russian President Putin's warning of "this could become an example for Cyprus". Another interesting development was the initiation of direct ferry routes between North Cyprus and Syria's Laskiye (Latakia) port.
Turkey, which is experiencing serious difficulties in its accession process with the EU, supports the initiative of the two leaders of the island for new negotiations after the elections in Southern Cyprus. Now all the cards have been shuffled in accordance with the solution process that is scheduled to begin in the autumn.
Because of the difficulties, for various reasons, that the Turkish government finds themselves in, there is a misconception in Brussels that in order to escape these difficulties Turkey will follow expectations and act in accordance with the wishes of the EU. Brussels, seeing this as an opportunity, should remember that there are many other various dynamics that come into play for Turkey when it comes to the Cyprus issue. Subsequent recent visits of two high-ranking generals of the Turkish

Armed Forces to Cyprus who repeated the same statement that Turkish soldiers will not withdraw from Cyprus until a just and permanent peace settlement has been reached should not be seen as just simple visits or statements .The timing of these visits signals the direction of Turkish diplomacy and the military power in support of it.
Regardless of the outcome of this last negotiation process, problems between Turkey and Greece, like those of the territorial waters dispute in the Aegean Sea, continental shelf, exclusive economic zone and airspace, will spread to the Eastern Mediterranean. Signs of this were seen with the oil search crisis in 2007 between the Turkish and Greek administrations.
Iraq's Route: The Eastern Mediterranean
Marketing of Iraq's oil and natural gas to the world via secure Turkish ports in the East Mediterranean is vitally important for both Turkey and the United States. Furthermore, in recent times negotiations on this issue between these two states has made significant progress. Turkey has another resource that is as valuable as oil in the region; water. The tangential watercourses that run to the East Mediterranean, passes through Syria and Iraq and reaches the Gulf at Basra. Israel signed an accord with Ankara for the use of water sources in the south of Turkey . Central Asian and Caspian Sea oil and gas, which will be transported to Turkey's terminals in the East Mediterranean, are also included in the accord. The extension of water, oil and gas lines from Southern Turkey to Israel, through a joint system, and the transportation project for oil and gas from Israel to the Red Sea is of significance enough to affect the world's balance.
At the same time, the US's military logistic activities for Iraq and Afghanistan pass through the port of Iskenderun. A crisis that flares up in the Eastern Mediterranean, because of the Cyprus issue, would cause bigger problems than any of those seen in the last 50 years. Without a doubt, Turkey will conduct the new Cyprus negotiations keeping in mind these parameters.
Turkish decision-makers see the Cyprus issue as more than a simple historical diplomacy problem. Ankara is aware that any disadvantageous result from the Cyprus negotiations would cause irreparable damage with its other problems such as the Aegean Sea, Armenia and secessionism in Southeast Turkey. Because of this, Turkey is more focused on its US strategy than its EU strategy in the region. Furthermore, the membership of Cyprus to the EU without a solution being in place has been perceived as deception on the part of the EU, since the promises made to Turkey for allowing this have not been kept. In turn, Turkey is not approving the inclusion of Cyprus to the Customs Union protocol .
Turkish Armed Forces and ESDP Lock
The main problem according to the EU is the presence of the Turkish Army in Cyprus. Brussels defines the Turkish Armed Forces (TAF) as an occupying force at every opportunity . The seeds of the new negotiation process have been sewn and the first sprouts are expected in autumn, how would the EU expect to get TAF out of Cyprus if these new negotiations fail? Forceful extraction of TAF from the island by the EU is out of the question. This is because the decisions taken by the EU in regards to its European Security and Defence Policy (ESDP) will be an obstacle for Brussels in any such action. These decisions state that the EU cannot militarily intervene in these types of situations .
Turkey's stance on the ESDP issue is not to back down. Any attempt to use pressure to resolve this issue with the ESDP would cause the US to intervene. It is clear that the EU does not want this. Moreover, a formation that is still far from proving itself in Kosovo will not have the power to intervene in the Cyprus problem.
Behind Ankara's insistence for finding a solution under the auspices of the UN lies a strategy to ensure that the US is more involved in these developments. A solution is a secondary objective for the EU, which has accepted Cyprus as a whole. Their priority now, after the membership of Cyprus to the EU, is to obtain stability out of the difficult position they have fallen into.
From the perspective of the US the situation is much more different and complex. The United States perceives the developments in Turkish - Greek relations as an integral part of security in the Eastern Mediterranean. Any conflict - even at a controlled level - between Turkey and Greece should be prevented according to the US, in the present conjecture. A possible conflict, aside from the two states being members of NATO, would affect the security status of a vitally important region for the US. Russia's efforts to reactivate former military bases in the Eastern Mediterranean, the existence of an international force roaming in the open sea between Lebanon and Israel and altercations between Israel-Syria and Israel-Iran need to be included in the picture.
Conclusion and Choices
Asserting that the dispute over Cyprus is bilateral anymore contradicts the naked truth. The EU is aware of the fact that one side of Cyprus is an actual member and the other is just on paper. This situation has put an already deep seated problem into even more difficulty. The steps already taken by the EU, shows that the EU is trying to use Turkey's accession process to solve the problem. Ankara, on the other hand, is aware of the veto threat from Cyprus or Greece in every level of the accession process and that they will try to force concessions.
Different from the Mediterranean Union, the idea of a non-member partnership, in which conditions will be determined through EU-Turkey bilateral talks, are being discussed, albeit in a low tone for now, in Ankara. The number of people who think that this type of a new mechanism will give Turkey some space to move will surely increase daily. Moreover, recognition of Southern Cyprus in its current borders as the Republic of Cyprus will be the acceptance of the current division and will open the way for recognition of the North by states other than Turkey and is now a seriously considered option in Ankara.
Whatever the outcome of the newly entered negotiation process in Cyprus, it will cause major changes in the Eastern Mediterranean. Furthermore, in this abalone the elimination of one ball is inescapable. The question is in which direction will the balls move?

Endnotes
I) Yılmaz Tezkan, "Siyaset, Strateji ve Milli Güvenlik", Ülke Kitapları, Temmuz 2000, İstanbul, s. 124.
II) NTVMSNBC "Buyukanit: KKTC'den Hemen Asker Cekilmez" 29 March 2008 http://www.ntvmsnbc.com/news/440924.asp
III) Republic of Turkey Ministry of Foreign Affairs Official Website "Turkey-Israel Economic Relations" http://www.mfa.gov.tr/MFA_tr/DisPolitika/Bolgeler/OrtaDogu/Israil/Israil...
IV) Republic of Turkey Ministry of Foreign Affairs Official Website "Customs Union" http://www.mfa.gov.tr/MFA_tr/DisPolitika/AnaKonular/Turkiye_AB/gumruk_bi...
V) to be found
VI) to be found