International conflicts are never out of the agenda in the Middle East. Asymmetric wars continue for many years, which sometimes transform into limited or all-out war, with the loss of life in the region having reached over a million. The Iraq and Lebanon wars, the effect of these wars on neighbouring countries, Hezbollah's challenge to Israel in Lebanon, Hamas opening gaps in the Gaza border in full view of the Egyptian Armed Forces are some examples of asymmetric dynamism in the region. However, by looking at the number of casualties from wars of various intensities in the region, we wonder whether World War III has (already) begun. Within this chaos, we can observe that oil rich countries that perceive themselves under threat are spending more money on armaments to strengthen their armies, facilitated by unbelievable high oil prices and the richness that this has brought to the countries of the region.
The threatening, if not aggressive, stance of Iran and Syria, who are portrayed as a source of threat in the region by the US, and the existence of various terrorist groups' forces in nearly all Middle Eastern countries, especially the Gulf states, have led to more spending on armaments. Besides the hard currency acquired from oil revenue, US military aid worth approximately $60 billion dollars, although the US is aware that a significant amount of this military aid will probably turn back to itself, enables Egypt, Israel, Saudi Arabia and other US allies to spend more money on armaments. This aid programme, declared during the visit of Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and Secretary of Defence Robert Gates to the region in July 2007, disturbed Iran and Syria, resulting in the two states re-evaluating and re-enforcing their own armament programmes. Americans, who asserts that US military aid would prevent Al-Qaeda, Hezbollah, Hamas and consequently Iran and Syria who have relationships with these groups at a limited level, will provide the aid over a specific time period. According to the timetable, starting from 2009, Israel will receive $3 billion dollars and Egypt will have $1.3 billion dollars of aid. This aid program, which will last for ten years, is the continuation of military aid since the 1970s but with a 25% increase. Apart from the states that are in need, the US's decision to sell $20 billion dollars worth of weaponry to Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, Amman, the richer than ever United Arab Emirates (UAE), as well as Saudi Arabia with their magnificent amount of oil revenue but who are intimidated by Iran, is significant.
The increase in oil prices, which was $36 dollars per barrel in 2003, has today exceeded $140 dollars, quadrupling the national revenues of oil producing countries of the region. As China and India's hunger for oil continues, the oil revenue of countries like the UAE, Amman, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain and Saudi Arabia are expected to rise from the current $800 billion dollars to $6 trillion dollars by 2020. While increased revenue brings increased wealth to the citizens of these states, it also has a relative affect in neighbouring states and indirectly helps states like Jordan, Egypt, Lebanon and Syria through trade and income from immigrant workers. Experts assert that this help is assisting significantly in the prevention of fundamentalist groups' influence in the region.
Oil exporting countries, having increased the level of education in the process, are expected to spend oil revenues in a rational manner rather than wasting it as they did with rapidly increased revenues in the 1970s. Although regional threats force them to attach more weight on arms procurement, they signal that investment for the development of industry and other sectors will also be made. An interesting point here is that such states will also seriously invest in their defence industry. Israel's silence towards US military aid and its arms trade with these states, which are fundamentally enemies of Israel, is interesting behaviour. However, serious concerns have arisen within the Arab world towards the threat from Iran and Syria, and the Arab perception of Hezbollah and Hamas as a direct or indirect threat have broken the anti-Israel block to a great extent. Consequently, Israel is somewhat content with the US military and its armament aid to Arab countries because this would create a buffer zone between Israel and Iran. Furthermore, the US promise to Israel in keeping the quality superiority of Israel vis-à-vis Arab states prevents Israel's opposition to increasing military aid in the region.

The Developing Weapons Industry in the Middle East
The continuous asymmetric and conventional wars in the region, while giving the perception of a Third World War, has forced Arab states and Iran to take steps towards becoming self-sufficient in their defence industry. These states, which have budget and trade surpluses, are buying up international industries and finance firms as an investment for the future and at the same time trying to attract long term investment to their countries. Saudi Arabia, who have shifted their oil revenues to arms procurement and are one of the forerunners in arms imports come to mind. Last year the Saudis entered into a deal that would result in the assembly of 72 Eurofighter jets for their Air Force with an investment worth $8 billion dollars. This investment is expected to create employment for 17 thousand Saudi citizens. The additional procurement of helicopters for the Saudi Arabian Army is expected to cost $2.2 billion dollars. In addition, the Ministry of Interior's procurement of 16 Sikorsky S-92 and 17 S-76 helicopters from the US and the Navy's plan to acquire destroyers and platforms for coastal warfare are also significant.
From Turkey's perspective, the steps it has taken in past years to enter the region's market, especially the Saudi market, is worth consideration. FNSS Defence Systems, based in Ankara, initiated a pilot project with Saudi Arabia in 2004 for the modernisation of the Saudi Arabian Armed Forces armoured fighting vehicles and armoured personnel carriers, and the continuation of the pilot project was enabled with the additional agreement that was signed in September 2005. The continuation of such projects is important for the development of the Turkish defence industry. Saudi Arabia's project for procuring high tech weaponry from the US is welcomed by the US defence industry, yet, on the other hand, a group of Congressmen, who are suspicious about the sincerity of the Saudi alliance with the US, question such procurement projects. Congressmen have made a point of drawing attention to King Abdullah's statements on the illegality of the Iraq Operation, even defining it as an occupation, and to those suicide bombers in Iraq of Saudi origin. However, we should point out the significance of Saudi Arabia, which has spent $50 billion dollars on weapons procurement from the US, to the American defence industry who have overcome every concern in the past and who will certainly continue to do so in the future.
Other States and the Turkish Defence Industry
As one of the Gulf States who feel's the threat of Iran over their heads, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) has also decided to make serious defence procurements using its petro-dollars. Having realised the serious armament efforts being made in the region, FNSS Defence Systems, one of the leaders in the Turkish defence industry, established its first export contract with the UAE, delivering 133 Armoured Engineering Vehicles, Armoured Rescue Vehicles and Armoured Artillery Forward Observation Vehicles in February 2001. However, the states in the region generally prefer to meet most of their increasing arms needs from western companies, who are specialised in this field. A fleet of F-16 tanker planes from Airbus, early warning systems, improved jet training planes and French built warships are some of the examples of procurements by the UAE. They have also announced plans to increase the power of their Air Force, with the announcement of cooperation with US firms for the supply of maintenance, repair and manufacturing units for the Air Force and Navy expected in this respect.
Jordan, which does not have any oil revenue but has a strong armed force, tries to maintain its strength through the use of US military aid. Jordan has a renewal project for its obsolescent F-16 fleet in cooperation with Turkish Aerospace Industries Inc. (TAI). In the near future, with the possible withdrawal of US forces from Iraq, a problem of self-sufficiency will arise for the Iraqi Army. Consequently, Iraq is expected to procure every type of weaponry for its army, navy and air force in the near future. In addition, oil rich Kuwait is expected to strengthen its army, especially against Iran and from armed groups in Iraq and are in the process of procuring new battle tanks, armoured personnel carriers, artillery and new Patriot missiles. Syria and Iran are expected to buy fighter planes and surface-to-air missiles (SAM) primarily from Russia. Egypt, the recipient of a high level of US military aid, is also expected to procure Apache attack helicopters, early warning planes, F-16's and Abrams tanks, strengthening its army in accordance with regional balances.
The US, the Russian Federation, the United Kingdom and France are competing for the biggest share in the enormous and lucrative Middle East weapons market. China is also expected to enter the market fairly soon, in some areas. Turkey, which has started the manufacture of high tech weaponry, including missiles, could start taking steps towards entering the market and provide significant state help at every level as seen in the Western states.

*Vice Chairman of TUSAM (National Security Strategies Research Centre)
akulebi@tusam.net