Goeben, Breslau and McFall are more than names of three warships. Germany gave Goeben and Breslau to the Ottoman Empire. Their first mission after the acquisition was to bomb Sevastopol in Crimea, where the Russian Black Sea Navy headquarters was located. Warships entered the Black Sea for "naval exercise" and were commanded by their German crew. The Reich was having difficulties in the European theatre of the Great War and needed to expand the war. The Ottoman Empire was not a part of the war until the first front opened in the Black Sea, which was the first step towards the inevitable end. Thus, the Great War spread to a much wider geography, from the Middle East to Africa.
McFall is the name of an American destroyer. After the Ossetian War, it passed from the Turkish Straits to deliver "aid" to Georgia and entered the Black Sea. In accordance with the 1936 Montreux Convention, it left the Black Sea before completing 21 days. As these lines are being written(?), USS McFall passed the Turkish Straits once more and set sail for the dark blue waters of the Black Sea. The USS McFall ended its journey to the Russian controlled Georgian port of Poti by passing Russian Black Sea Navy at Sevastopol and Kerch. On the stage of history east of the Black Sea, there are unmistakable linkages between the past and the present. Today, Western allies, who were defeated in the Ossetian War (at least some of them), realize that the NATO expansion is a ridiculous strategy to follow. For those who still do not realize this, Crimea will be the second lesson, because, after the Russian recognition of the independence of Abkhazia and Ossetia, it is now Crimea's turn. This key peninsula in the Black Sea is ready to fall into internal strife. The West was unable to calculate Russian response to the disintegration of Yugoslavia and accession of the Baltic States to NATO. Allies thought that Russia would return back to Muscovy borders. However, Gorbachev's happy portrait of "we are a family" is replaced by war preparations after 2003. The First front opened in Caucasia. The Second will be Crimea and the third will be Trans-Dniester. Moscow may settle with autonomy in Trans-Dniester, but this will not be enough for the case of Crimea.

The United States Triggered the Events

Without doubt, the Clinton and the Bush administrations triggered the events that created the current situation in world affairs. The rules of Yalta disappeared in 1989. The United States misconcieved the new rules of the game because it was not a super power anymore. Various major states, especially the United State's European allies, improved their relationships with both former superpowers without feeling the need for cooling the relations with either of them. Russia has always been concerned about the disintegration project for Yugoslavia since the day it began. However, Russia had no power to respond to this during the time of Yeltsin. While Russia was warning that the decision made for the independence of Kosovo would become precedence, it was signaling its future steps. Clinton took the first step in Yugoslavia. Bush went beyond that and withdrew from 1972 USA-USSR Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty in 2002. Furthermore, he declared that the United States would not approve the agreed changes in 1996 Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty, which was signed during Clinton administration, and Strategic Arms Limitation Treaty II (SALT II). Then came the bid to surround Russia. Establishment of American military bases in Central Asian republics, once part of the Soviet Union, were the first step. Accession of the Baltic and East European states to NATO proved more problematic because Germany started to take steps towards improving relations with Russia and strengthening the latter in order to balance off the United States. The Russia-France-Germany pact, which emerged during the first days of the occupation of Iraq -despite the absence of Chirac and Schroder-, today paves the way for a different set of alliances while the United States is busy with projects that by-pass Russia in the transportation of Central Asia and Caspian energy to the west.

The 2004 NATO Summit A Turning Point

Retrospectively, Russian preparations were already underway in today's disputed Caucasia, Crimea and Trans-Dniester. Western backed colored revolutions increased the degree of polarization. Russia openly stated this fact during 2004 Istanbul NATO Summit. When Sergei Ivanov, Russia's Minister of Defence at the time, warned during NATO-Russia Council meeting that the possibility of an armed conflict was higher than during the Cold War because of the NATO expansion, nobody ever guessed what we experience today. These warnings were received by Western allies as the sound of a buzz of flies over the swaps of Iraq. Moscow, on the other hand, was giving Russian passports in South Ossetia and Crimea, and gathering and educating young people to form the groups that started to meet people's demands. On August 24, 2005, a pro-Western administration in Kiev was celebrating the independence of Ukraine with a different joy. On the other hand, "Sevastopol-Crimea-Russia Peoples Front" while declaring its establishment, was also declaring the end of Ukrainian annexation of Crimea in a demonstration. In the same declaration, the front requested that Crimea and Sevastopol should be given to Russia. In another demonstration at Simferopol on October 4, 2005, supporters of the Peoples Front marched to the Consulate-General of the Russian Federation and presented documents which were arguing that Crimea and Sevastopol belong to Russia. The front declared their strategic goal as "voluntary national independence struggle for reunification of Crimea with Russia". The stated Opinions of various Russian and Armenian scholars and intellectuals at Tavria University are important signals for the future of Crimea:

An independent Crimea, separated from Ukraine,
Ceasing of all ethnic identities and claims for the construction of Crimean national identity for all, who live in Crimea,
Pushing forward of the ideal of Crimea nationalism.

All Russian groups in Crimea are supporting these views. People, who are supporting above claims, are highly critical about giving more offices to Crimean Tatars in the administration of Crimea Autonomous Republic.
Russian supporters increased their political activism to realize their goal and formed a new MP group, called "Victor Yanukovich Block", in the RADA of Crimea Autonomous Republic. Fifteen MPs, 3 from the Ruskiy (Russian) Party and 12 from the Regiyonov (Regions) Party, joined the block headed by the leader of Crimea/Regiyonov Party Vasili Kiselyov. The Yanukovich Block declared that they would work for granting Russian language the status of state language, transforming of Ukraine into a federal state, establishment of double citizenship and the strengthening of Russia-Ukraine strategic partnership. In September, Russian youth organizations in the Crimea and the Regions Party established another block, ZARYA (for the motherland, for Yanukovich), to support Yanukovich.
The Crimean Tatars, on the other hand, are divided. Mustafa Cemiloglu, who was the leader of the Crimean Tatars for many years and remains the head of Crimea Tatar National Parliament, is under heavy criticism. Tatar opposition is concerned about cooperation between Cemiloglu, who is an MP in Ukrainian RADA, and Yuschenko. The reason for their concern is Yuschenko's resistance to give back the rights that were taken from the Tatars during their forced exile in 1946. Moreover, non-official paramilitary groups that are connected to Yuschenko are pressuring the Crimean Tatars. Leaving Tatar autonomy aside, Yuschenko is even trying to curb the autonomy of the Crimea, which forms the basis of ideological differences.
In addition, obstacles placed in the way of repatriated Tatars' right to acquire land and housing fuels the tensions within the society. According to reports, the number of Tatars who returned to Crimea has reached 300 thousand. Tatars who settled on the state owned-lands around Simferopol to build houses were being forced out by Kiev. This sometimes results in clashes. Cemiloglu, on the other hand, were criticized for not lending enough support to the rights of the Tatars. Increasing tensions between the Muslim Tatars and Crimea's Christian population can transform into a dangerous conflict. A portend for such a conflict rose recently when more than 200 Muslim tombstone were destroyed in Crimea. According to Ukrainian police, unknown attackers used adze and similar tools to destroy tombstones in two cemeteries that were reported to be in close proximity of two Slav villages, Marfovka and Voikovo.
For a couple of years, there have been disagreements on land ownership between the Christian Slavs and the Muslim Tatars. When the Crimean Tatars were exiled, their lands were distributed amongst Ukrainians. Today, the Tatars want their lands back. Police reported that sign of the Satan were drawn on some of the destroyed tombstones and that the nature of the incident is more of a clash between religious identities than ethnic conflict.

Muslim Tatars consists 20% of Crimean peninsula within the Ukrainian territory. Russians and Ukrainians in the Crimea are mostly Orthodox Christians.
City Council's decision to build "Jubilee Park" on the land that is designated to build a mosque increased the agitation of the Tatars. Sadik Tabak, member of the Simferopol City Council General Assembly, announced that the Council members decided to build a park at Yaltinskaya street no. 22 rather than building a mosque in the 39th states meeting of the Simferopol City Council. Such decision passed with a majority vote, 62 out of 72 members in favour, although there was a decision to build Akmescit Central Mosque on this land. In addition, there are three court decisions for granting the land to the Crimea Office of the Mufti.

The Radicalization of the Crimean Tatars

Building parks on the mosque property and destruction of Muslim tombstones increases the possibility of an armed conflict. Hence radical movements, which are increasing and apparently foreign supported, are another political time bomb in the hands of the Kieve administration, ready to erupt in an armed conflict.
The Non-governmental Organization act in Ukraine is one of the most liberal laws in the world. Religious parties that are forbidden in most of the states, including Russia, are free to operate in Ukraine.
Radical religious groups that want to exploit this law are trying to influence the Muslim Crimean Tatars in Crimea Autonomous Republic. This situation creates concerns within the Crimean Tatars, some of who became Muslims after the forced exile to Central Asia, forsaking their Sky-Father or pagan beliefs, yet they embrace a secular government mechanism.
Radical groups, which are trying to spread their influence throughout the Black Sea region are mostly supported by Arab states. The most apparent reasons that nourish radical organizations are harsh living conditions, prejudicial conduct and the animosity shown to the Tatars by the Christian groups in Crimea. Radical groups focus on the youth, which are experiencing these conditions. Groups like Hizb-ut Tahrir are recruited from educators, historians and lawyers in Crimea and are being organized via lending the Crimean Tatars assistance in their daily life.
Hizb-ut Tahrir is the most effective radical group in Crimea, with some 2,000 members. The party maintains that Sharia is the only way for securing the lives of the people living in the Crimean peninsula. In addition, the Party distributes a newspaper called "Vozrojdeniye" (Resurrection) for free in mosques to spread its opinions. Ukraine government receives help from Department of Religious Affairs of Turkey for religious education of Crimea Muslims. However, the Tatar imams, who were educated in Crimea peninsula and Turkey, have started to work for radical groups, which makes the situation a sticky one. The Office of the Mufti of Crimea is largely ineffective in addressing it.
On the other hand, Saudi Arabia works for the spread of Vahabism in the Crimea and the Caucasus. Religious commissioners from Saudi Arabia, who have a good command of Russian, conduct propaganda amongst the Tatars. The Crimean Tatars are being educated in Saudi Arabia and continue their education in youth camps in the country after graduation from Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabian students, who are in various universities in Crimea, are appointed as imams and they distribute propaganda materials for the spread of Vahabism.
Intellectuals who came to Crimea for humanitarian aid, trade, education and tourism from various Muslim states operate via establishing personal networks and meetings and are capable of providing ideological leadership to Crimean Tartars as well as help in their social life.
Non-governmental organizations and their offices send aid to local religious communities and families, especially leaders of Crimean Tatars. Food is the main aid element. Students receive stationeries and financial aid. Moreover, houses were bought for poor families under the condition that they would provide religious education in these houses.

Government's Desperation

The Ukrainian government is aware of the current situation. However, its options are limited. Today, the Ukrainian public knows that after Georgia, the Crimea is next. When pro-Western President Yuschenko said, "accepting that borders of any state in Europe can change is accepting that Ukraine's borders can change", he meant Crimea. On the other hand, main opposition Regions Party, which is known for its closeness to Russia, wants Ukraine to recognize Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Orange revolution comrades Yuschenko and Timoshenko are no longer sharing the same path. The effects of political turmoil would be seen in Crimea in a short period. Crimean leaders, who are in favor of separation from Ukraine, could increase their voices.

Conclusion
Upon Russia's recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine declared that intelligence services and office of public prosecutors initiated investigation on those who have double citizenship. Ukrainian laws prohibit Ukrainian citizens to acquire another state's citizenship. However, how Ukraine determines who has which state's citizenship remains unclear.
Crimea, which was part of Russian Soviet Socialist Republic in the Soviet Union until 1954, was given to Ukraine Soviet Republic with a decree from Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev. The impact of this decision upon the region emerged after the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. Although Russia does not have a claim on Crimea officially, some prominent politicians reiterate that Crimea belongs to Russia. The existence of Russian Black Sea Navy in Crimea and local people's affinity for Russia causes concerns in Ukrainian government about their territorial integrity.
Just before the recent conflict in Caucasia, Russia claimed Tuzla islet, which is close to Crimea. This crisis, which nobody in the world seems interested in, is frozen by Ukraine-Russia talks for the time. Actually, Tuzla islet crisis is more than a conflict over control of an islet. Russia measured the reaction of Ukraine and tried to determine the world's interest in the region in case of conflict over Tuzla islet crisis.
When we add all these up, the scene and scenario is ready: Ethnic tensions in Crimea reache a critical level and armed and bloody clashes start between Crimean Tatars, Russians and Ukrainians. Ukrainian army intervenes in the conflict. As a reaction to the intervention, Russian controlled Crimea Autonomous Republic government and parliament calls for the help of Russia and Russian army, arguing that Ukrainian army and Crimean Tatar militias initiated genocide against Russians. Russia, as a rescuer of Russians in Crimea and preventer of genocide, surrounds Crimea with its Navy and finally enters Crimea.
This "scenario" is a "reality." As per a Russian proverb; one hand washes the other.