Asia-Pacific Alliance Strengthens
Following the change of leadership in Russia last May, the new President Dmitry Medvedev made his first official foreign visit to China. The visit by the Russian President carries major significance not least because of the fierce debates Russia has had with the United States for the past year over their missile defence project, whilst China has been trying to stay out of the debate. Medvedev's reasons for making China his first port of call are threefold. Firstly, to sympathise with China's pain, for the natural disaster they suffered and to offer Russian support; secondly, as a show of support against the negative international reaction shown toward the Global Olympic Torch Relay for the Beijing 2008 Olympics, shown toward China; and thirdly, to reinforce Putin's legacy of establishing a new power base in Eurasia.
With these objectives in mind, Medvedev met with Chinese President Hu Jintao in Beijing. The main topics of the bilateral talks were undoubtedly the US and the future structure of the international system. The joint declaration issued by the two leaders made a point of "the confidence crisis between states that are out of the system and those within the system" and warned that "the missile defence system, which is planned to be deployed in different parts of the world, is not helping strategic balance and stability and sabotage attempts to prevent proliferation and control of weapons of mass destruction". This visit also saw Moscow taking the first steps towards an agreement for the construction of a joint uranium enrichment facility by signing a nuclear cooperation agreement worth a massive $1 billion dollars with Beijing. These rapidly developing relations in the economic sphere, where the volume in trade between the two states has surpassed $60 billion dollars, are also reflected in their foreign policy. Medvedev's statement at a press conference held in China that Russia viewed China as their primary partner in its foreign policy has underlined this relationship.
President Medvedev went on to say that relations between Russia and China were based on mutual respect and cooperation, with a joint approach in foreign policy and that the "Year of Russia that was celebrated in China in 2006 and the Year of China that was celebrated in Russia in 2007 helped these relations. New projects for Year of Russia in China in 2009 and year of China in Russia in 2010 are being developed. Besides economic and political relations, cooperation in science, culture, education and sports would help to bring the two states closer." Finally, Medvedev expressed his best wishes to the Chinese government and its people for the 2008 Olympics.
Sino-Russian Energy Cooperation
The biggest obstacle facing China on its path to becoming a global power is the US's military and political influence on energy resources and its transportation routes. The secure and guaranteed acquisition of energy is vital for a powerful China, which would enable it to have freedom of movement in international politics. Consequently, Beijing is shifting to alternative resources by pursuing energy diplomacy in every corner of the world. In this context, China is developing projects that will enable it to have a direct reach to Central Asian and Caspian energy resources, one of these being its continued negotiations on an energy pipeline project with Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan. Moscow realises the importance of uninterrupted flow of energy resources for China, and that this is its weak point, and so strives to see a powerful China beside them as a balance against the US and the European Union. From this perspective, Russia is working on a new pipeline project that will provide this uninterrupted energy flow. This pipeline, widely known as EPSO, will carry oil that is produced in Siberia to China and Asia-Pacific, transporting 1.6 million barrels of oil per day. The second stage of the pipeline will have a capacity of 367.5 million barrels per year. According to the agreement between the Chinese National Petrol Company (CNPC) and the Rosneft Oil Company, China will fund the project, with the first stage of the new pipeline projected to cost $11 billion dollars.
During the Putin administration, Japan was also participating in negotiations for a pipeline from Siberia. Putin would sometimes use this pipeline as a strategic tool against China. An example of this was seen in 2005, during US President Bush's visit to Beijing, when Putin made a surprise visit to Japan to put the construction of a pipeline from Siberia onto the agenda there. At the time, Putin's move was perceived as a covert warning to China against the possibility of cooperating with the US. However today, Russia has put this pipeline project onto the agenda to sustain China's energy security. The pipeline would enable Russia to both support and control its ally. China, which is aware of this fact, aims to hold Russia at a fixed position through the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) and bases this strategic cooperation on mutual benefit. For now, Russia needs China and the SCO to protect its prestige against the US and NATO. In contemporary international politics, no one has the luxury to overlook China. This was demonstrated recently when China, despite intense pressure from the US, used vetoes to prevent any action being taken against the problems of Iran, North Korea, Myanmar and Darfur.
Shanghai Cooperation Organisation Re-Defined
Sino-Russian relations are certainly not perfect. Since the end of the Cold War, relations between the two states have had their ups and downs. For a long time, a covert confidence crisis existed between China and Russia, only becoming visible during debates over the structure of the SCO. Since the foundation of the SCO, China and Russia have had differing views on the identity and control of the organisation. While Russia defended that the organisation should have more of an economic and political nature; China supported a military identity based on regional security. Russia was inviting members of the organisation, especially China, to the security mechanisms established by Russia. In reality Russia's reason for this was the increased Chinese influence in the region with their establishment of the SCO. This was contradictory to Russia's near abroad doctrine. However, after Putin's harsh criticism of the US and NATO at the 2007 Munich Security Conference, the EU, which was experiencing tension with Russia over energy, backed the US, with the rise of a new balance resulting in Russia getting closer to China against this alliance. The fruits of this approach were seen at the 2007 Shanghai Cooperation Organisation Bishkek Summit, at which Russia and China for the first time were able to reach an agreement on the military identity of the organisation based on regional security.
This move by Russia is directly related to its power struggle with the US. However, China was not involved in the debates on the missile defence system. The reason for this is Hu Jintao's policy of striving for zero problems with its neighbours and peaceful development. China's most important national goal for the last year has been the organisation for a successful hosting of the Olympic Games. For this reason, China is being careful not to fall out with the US, whom they have extensive trade relations with. Despite this, since the summer of 2007, Chinese officials have been strongly criticising the US for their interference in Chinese domestic affairs. Furthermore, the US's quest for a military base in Tajikistan, which is in close proximity to China, has evoked reactions from Beijing. With the occupation of Iraq, the US has lost all its strategic positions in Eurasia and Asia-Pacific to China and Russia. As such, Russia and China gained these strategic positions virtually without cost to itself.
Coloured Revolutions in the Asia-Pacific Region
Since 2005, the US has been pursuing various policies in order to regain its lost strategic dominance in this region with coloured revolutions being at the top of its list. The US then tried to initiate a new process with countries in the region to break the influence that China was trying to establish in South Asia. In Thailand, the pro-US King with the backing of the army ousted Thailand's Prime Minister Thaksin, who was developing close relations with China. Then, the most significant ally of China, Myanmar was brought to the UN Security Council, but Russian and Chinese vetoes prevented any progress. The US, not able to overcome this obstacle, tried to realise a coloured revolution through the Buddhist Monks of Myanmar. After the meeting between Bush and the spiritual leader of Buddhist's, the Dalai Lama, at the White House, thousands of Buddhist Monks revolted resulting in the military junta in Myanmar fiercely suppressing these uprisings.
Unlike other states that have had coloured revolutions, in Myanmar there are no Non-Governmental Organisations such as Freedom House or US financier George Soros's Open Society Institute. Consequently, Buddhist Monks constitute the largest organised society in the country. With an order from the Buddhist's spiritual leader, the arch enemy of China and number one ally of the US, the Dalai Lama, Buddhist Monks poured on to the streets. In the highly hierarchical Buddhist society, it is unimaginable that monks may have pursued such action without an order from their spiritual leader. Myanmar's geostrategic location is more important than which regime it is being ruled by. Myanmar is located at a controlling position of the Bay of Bengal, which is a significant location for the control of strategic maritime routes to the Far East that pass through the Indian Ocean. These strategic maritime routes are used to transport oil, most significantly to China, Japan and Korea. We can therefore formulate the strategic importance of Myanmar as such: whoever controls Myanmar controls the Bay of Bengal; whoever controls the Bay of Bengal controls the Indian Ocean and whoever controls the Indian Ocean, controls energy transportation to China and Japan.
Tibet Uprising
On 14th March, the uprising in the Autonomous Region of Tibet in China under the leadership of Buddhist Monks saw the local people of Tibet protest against the Chinese government. The Chinese government harshly suppressed these protests but incurred the intense reaction of the world, directed at the Olympic Torch Relay during its world tour. The EU and the US then went on to criticise China's behaviour towards the demonstrators. The main purpose behind the Tibet uprising was to prevent the Beijing 2008 Olympics from going ahead. From a Chinese foreign policy perspective, Beijing 2008 is an important showcase for China's new face, while the old face of the US is concerned about China becoming the centre of attention. One of the most important areas of struggle during the Cold War was sport. The Soviet Union attached great significance to sporting events and attended them all in an effort to advertise itself. China also wants to advertise itself via the Olympics. The most frightening thing for the neo-conservatives in the US is the new political alternative to the US model - the miracle growth and the rise of the Chinese Socialist model. The neo-cons, who take credit for the collapse of the Soviet Union, cannot accept the challenge from a stronger Communist state. Therefore, some say that they are trying to sabotage the successful management of the Olympics in China through third parties. China in turn, after the Tiananmen experience, approached these demonstrations cautiously and allowed the world's media to report on them within limits.
China-Japan-Russia-India Axis
China moved its strategic relations, which started with Russia, one step further by initiating a new period in relations with Japan. With the personal efforts of the Chinese Prime Minister Wen, political, cultural, economic and military relations have been rapidly developing between the two states since last year. Visits of two Japanese Prime Ministers to China and the visit of the Chinese Prime Minister to Japan and his speech to the Japanese Parliament resulted in winds of peace blowing in East Asia. This laid the groundwork for the first visit in May, for 10 years, of a Chinese President to Japan. Hu Jintao was warmly welcomed by the Japanese Emperor, high ranking officials and the Japanese people. Japan has an important role in the US's new Asia-Pacific security approach. The Washington administration positively approaches the re-emergence of Japan as a power, believing that China will be counter-balanced. However, they want Japan to be a controlled power.
China proposes a new approach for Japan, which is in search of its own destiny, with the slogan of "Asia for Asians". Without doubt, this rapprochement is the result of China's desire to protect its back, while it continues in its pursuit of Caspian and Central Asian energy basin policies. Because of this, China's prioritises are to cooperate rather than be in conflict with Japan. Having once been a mighty empire, national awareness is continuously increasing in Japan, giving rise to reactions towards the US' control over their destiny. Japan thinks that they will regain a powerful and independent status in East Asia by cooperating with China. The Washington administration thinks otherwise and plans to see Japan as a counter-balance and obstacle to China instead.
China, having improved relations with the biggest threat to its east, Japan, initiated a new process with the other threat to its west, India. With the membership of India to the SCO in 2005, China's improved bilateral relations with India lead to their cooperation in the area of defence. Last year both states' military forces completed joint field exercises aimed against terrorism in China. India is one of the artificial power centres that the US is trying to establish against China. India, feeling deceived by the many promises made by the US during the visit of President Bush in 2006, has realised that promises are not being kept, and have turned towards China. Russia is unavoidably obliged to align itself with China because countering the US in Latin America and Africa by itself appears to be impossible for now. Russia, which cannot form close cooperation with Japan due to its dispute of the Northern Territories (Kuril Islands), wants to initiate a new process with Japan through China. The most important reason behind Sino-Russian rapprochement in the last year has been that China was able to attract Japan and India to its side.
Conclusion
In conclusion, China is overcoming every obstacle on the path to it becoming a global power, with diplomatic manoeuvres in Sun Tzu neatness. Today's administration continues to pursue Deng's moderate policy, with Beijing trying not to become party to any power struggles. However, in the last two years, the missile debate between the US and Russia and the US's insistence on intervening in Iran has resulted in China showing its true colours. The US is creating artificial crises in order to make up for its mistakes in Iraq and Afghanistan and to distract the world's attention to other issues. These crises seem to occur in small Asian states that are very close to China. Beijing sees these crises as aimed at preventing the peaceful development of China. China in turn has resisted the US on the Iran issue. Although China is not a party to the missile debate, Medvedev's visit saw China changing its attitude and strongly criticising the US. This change of policy is the result of America's attitude towards Myanmar and the belief that Washington is behind the would-be uprising in Tibet. Without question, there is a cost to promotion from regional to global power. China has been under pressure from foreign powers for two years. It has secured trade, energy transportation and national security through the chain of strategic alliances it has formed with its neighbours. Medvedev, for whom the US had great expectations, hoping that he would erase Putin's legacy, has undoubtedly disappointed the US by making his first foreign visit to China.
Medvedev's visit to China and then the Chinese President's visit to Japan have once again shown that a new powerful pole has started to emerge in Eurasia outside of the US initiative. China talks about the further institutionalisation of this movement by suggesting an Asian Union. Russia and China think that the SCO, with the help of Japan and India, could become a collective organisation that would counter-balance NATO in the global arena. To sum up, the US, which struggled on one front during the Cold War, is running towards a struggle that will emerge as two fronts. A unipolar world system has started to shift towards a multipolar system.
Notes:
(*) For missile defence debate between the US and Russia see; Barış Adıbelli (2008) Avrasya Jeopolitiğinde Büyük Oyun IQ Yayıncılık:Istanbul
(**) For Chinese foreign policy towards Eurasia see; Barış Adıbelli (2007) Çin'inAvrasya Stratejisi IQ Yayıncılık:Istanbul
