Polish people awakened from a weekend lag with a shocking news on the morning of Saturday, 10 th of April. Plane which was carrying President Lech Kaczynski and 90 senior officials, crushed while landing on Smolensk City. Nobody survived in the crush. Some people found this tragedy similar to the carnage in the 2 nd World War in which Soviet Russians killed thousands of Polish Military Officers in Katyn Forest. Committee was going to Katyn Forest for the anniversary of this 2 nd World War tragedy. News agencies announced that the plane accident was a result of bad weather conditions. Fog above the Smolensk prevented the landing of the plane and pilot was crushed in the third trial of landing. According to the claims that the pilot was suggested to land the plane to Minsk after the second landing trial but Kacynski insisted for landing to the Smolensk so pilot tried for the third time. Decoding of the black box still continues with the participation of Polish Officials in Russia.

Conspiracy Theories

A video record which was uploaded to the internet after the plane crush confused the minds. In the blurred scenes of this video record, some people were shooting to the people survived from the plane crush. Public prosecutor in Poland was announced that the scenes are real. News announced by Western Sources were contradicting to the prosecutor's announcement. Western sources were defending that those recordings are not real. Prosecutor denied the assassination claims which were derived from this recording. Polish people are not thinking in that way. They think that this accident is a planned assassination. That much coincidence do not seem normal. A country's all senior officials including the military generals were destroyed in the lands of historical enemy Russia. Nobody can accept this kind of a situation easily. Poland was accusing Moscow for the plane crush. A nationalist and conservative state president of a country which is tore between Germany and Russia for centuries could only be killed by the traditional enemy. But was this the truth?

Who was Kacynsky?

Lech Kacyznsky, was an important figure for contemporary Poland politics. He was one of the leading figures with his twin brother Yaroslav in the famous Polish Rebellion Solidarnoszc(Cooperation Movement). He was contradicted with the movement's leader Lech Walesa. While Walesa was cooperating with communists, anti-communist originated Kacyznsky's desire was to punish those communists.

President Lech Kacyznsky and his twin brother who was once a Prime Minister for temporarily Yaroslav Kacynzsky were members of the religious and peasantry originated PIS (Peasants and Workers Party).

Lech Kacinsky who is known as a pro-American political figure was blaming communist degeneration for every mistake of the state. Kacinsky was so much sensitive about the state corruption. Some bureaucrats were afraid of working on the legal issues because of the Kacinsky's sensitive approach.

In NATO and EU member Poland, religious and conservative Kacinsky and his party is very similar to the JDP and its leader Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. Their style of speech and understanding of the society are so much likely to each other. While half of the polish people were supporting him, other half was thinking that they are taking the country to the dark ages. Another discussion was held because of his bury to the Wavel Cathedral in Krakow where is known as the burying place for kings and historical heroes of Poland.

Public support for Kacinsky was decreasing recently. His pro-American anti-Russian policy was contradicting geopolitical strategy of Poland. Polls were showing that the public support for him decreased to 27%. After the plane crush public support increased above the 50% point. If he was alive, he would probably lose the elections which will be held in the end of the 2010.

Direction of Poland

The front-runner for the next elections in 20 th of june is Stanislaw Komorovski who is the acting president after the death of Kacinsky. Komorovski who is a member of central right party: Civil Platform Party was one of the favorite candidates before the plane crush too. Donald Tusk is also a member of the same party who had the leading role on developing the Poland - Russia relations recently. Tusk was thought for presidency but prime minister announced that he will not be a candidate for presidency. Tusk was achieved to make Russia apologize for the Katyn Massacre and he also shows a close friendship with Vladimir Putin. Another candidate for the presidency is the twin of the dead Kacinzsky: Yaroslav Kacinszky. Latest polls about presidency show that Kamorovski will win the elections with a clear difference (55%). If this will not happen then Kamorovski's victory is thought to be the certain in the second round of the elections. Tusk's success is an important element for this expectation. Tusk is not only an important figure for economics, he also played an important role on the new foreign policy initiatives. Anti- Russian and pro-American view point of Kacinskys' does not have positive implications on the Polish society. Against to this reaction which contradicts even with the European reality, Komorovski and Tusk are having an important role to restore the a policy which unites western and eastern Europe. Especially Germany is supporting this policy of Poland. Christian Democrat Prime Minister Angela Merkel who got closer to the Russia after the US rooted economic crisis, catalyzes new transformation of the Poland. Angela Merkel was one of the leading actors on Poland - Russia closure which was started before the tragic plane crush. The saying which became a idiom in Polish political culture "Polishes can do a lot with Germans but They can do nothing without Germans are proved again.

Probable Election Results

Result of the election has a potential to an important change in the Eurasia. Predictions which mention that the Polishes-Germans and Russians will determine the next 20 years of the Europe would become a reality. Poland will have a new balance policy on the east-west axis. This balance will have a more tendency to the east when compared to the former policies. So missile shield project may be cancelled after the elections. Start-2 treaty which was signed between US and Russia will become more effective. Similarly, Iran will be affected from Poland elections too. If missile shield project cancelled than sanctions upon Iran will be fastened. NATO will look forward to find a new place to construct missile shield. Turkey will step forward as a lucky ally of the NATO. Ankara cannot accept this kind of an agreement because Turkey is getting closer to the Islamic Countries and Russia. If Turkey which has the second biggest army of the Europe, cannot get into an agreement than all eyes will return to Poland. Increasing NATO pressure will have a negative effect on political stability of Warsaw. As an opposition to the NATO pressure, Russia will have an economic cooperation with Poland.

BOX

WHY IS POLAND IMPORTANT?

Poland had seen lots of invasions throughout the history because it has no natural borders. During the Second World War, Poland faced with a mass destruction. It was one of the countries which had much causality. Poland had been always an important country because of its geopolitical location between the Baltic Coast and Central-Eastern Europe. Because of the deliberate permission of England and France, Poland was brought to the ground in the Second World War. Anti-Western movement strengthened in Poland and Poland became a part of East Bloc, Soviet Union. Soviet invasion which was lasted until 90s created an Anti-Soviet Poland this time. Poland became economically strong within the EU and NATO membership period. Poland is still rising in Europe with its trade and investment capabilities. The flow of mobile capital to the internal capital in Poland is an important evidence for Poland's attraction for investors. According to the records: Poland earned 14 Billion Euro by foreign investment, this amount increased to 15 billion Euro in 2008 and it was increased to 21 Billion Euro in 2009. Citigroup, Fiat, France Telekom, KBC Bank, LG, Metro Group, Unicredito Italiano, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development are the important associations which are investing to Poland.

Poland has an important role with its strategically important location which is a passing point for EU especially for the active eastern markets like Russia and Ukraine. High productivity in the investments, comparatively low job and life expenses, dimensions of Poland market and high-quality labor force make Poland the China of the Europe.

Gross national product of Poland increased twice times more than the average gross national product increase of the Europe. Poland has the second place on planned investments in Europe (Ernst & Young), Poland also has the second place about the trust of investors in Europe (AT Kearney), and it has the seventh place in the top ten of the global investment centers list.

Employment Increase [1]

Year 2007 2008 2009

Poland (%) 6.5 5.3 5.2

EU (%) 2.9 2.0 2.4

Human Resources

20 millions of young, educated and foreign language spoken young people.
24 millions of people as a labor force (61% of the population)
2 millions of people who has a high school or university degree.
450 centers which are established for high school and university education.

Strategic Location

Today Poland is able to reach 250 millions of consumers in the heart of the Europe at a radius of 1000 km. Poland offers Trans-Europe highway corridor, enlarging internal market, 38 millions consumers and an enlargement of %14 in retail market.

Investment Incentives

- A source of 90 Billion Euro gained from EU and national budget for development, infrastructure and human resources.
- 14 private economic zones for incentives (Free Zones)
- Industrial and technological parks.
- Transportation infrastructure development.
- 30 billion euro valued investment for developing the transportation infrastructure for the preparation of 2012 European Football Championship (EURO 2012) which will be held in Poland and Ukraine.

Sophie's Choice (US-1982) Sophie's Choice is a 1982 American drama romance film that tells the story of a Polish immigrant, Sophie, and her tempestuous lover who share a boarding house with a young writer in Brooklyn.The film stars Meryl Streep, Kevin Kline, and Peter MacNicol. Alan J. Pakula directed the movie and wrote the script from a novel by William Styron, also called Sophie's Choice. Sophie eventually reveals that her father was a Nazi sympathizer. Sophie had a lover, Józef (Neddim Prohic), who lived with his half-sister, Wanda (Katharina Thalham), a leader in the Resistance. Wanda tried to convince Sophie to translate some stolen Gestapo documents, but fearing she may endanger her children, she declined. Two weeks later Józef was murdered by the Gestapo, and Sophie was arrested and sent to Auschwitz with her children. Upon arrival, Jan (Adrian Kaltika), Sophie's son, was sent to the children's camp, and her daughter, Eva (Jennifer Lawn), was sent to her death in Crematorium Two.
[1]. EU Interim Forecast